Max Scherzer finds a home in Toronto

The Blue Jays signed 40-year-old future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer this week, pending a physical exam, on a one-year, $15.5 million contract.

The 2024 season with the Texas Rangers was quite frustrating for the three-time Cy Young winner as he dealt with various injuries. After undergoing offseason back surgery, Scherzer didn’t make his season debut until late June. He made eight starts before being sidelined by shoulder fatigue in August. He managed just one more start in September before suffering a hamstring strain that kept him out for the rest of the season. In total, Scherzer pitched 43.1 innings in 2024, finishing with a 3.95 ERA (4.18 FIP). More concerning was the continued decline in his fastball velocity, marking the fifth consecutive season of reduced velocity. His fastball averaged 92.5 mph last season, and I don’t he can afford to lose much more velocity. Additionally, his strikeout rate dropped in 2024.

On a positive note, Scherzer’s command appears to have improved, which will be crucial considering his declining velocity. He still possesses an effective curveball and slider, both of which produce excellent whiff rates. Therefore, it’s not all doom and gloom. Scherzer could still be an effective mid-rotation contributor for the Blue Jays this season. I don’t expect him to pitch a full season; it would be a successful outcome if he starts around 15 games with an ERA somewhere between 3.80 and 4.20.

Scherzer is confident about his health and expressed this during the winter: “Look, this season has been obviously frustrating for me… Probably the most frustrating season of my career. But the only good news is I can go into the offseason healthy. My back’s good, and my arm’s good. The real serious concerns are actually in a good spot.”

Scouts who observed him pitch in January noted that he looked like the Max Scherzer of old, which is promising for the Blue Jays.

Scherzer will join Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, and Jose Berrios in the Blue Jays’ rotation. Last season, the Blue Jays ranked ninth in the American League in ERA (3.95). The Blue Jays will need to improve on that to be playoff contenders. Bowden Francis is expected to be the fifth starter in their rotation. The team has a bit of depth, which will be crucial given Scherzer’s age, with options like Yariel Rodriguez, who made 21 starts with a 4.47 ERA last season as a rookie and could potentially improve. Alex Manoah is expected to return late this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and their top pitching prospect, Jake Bloss, may make his MLB debut at some point this year.

In conclusion, I believe this was a worthwhile risk for the Blue Jays to take, who had a rather average starting rotation in 2024. Scherzer could still be effective, and who knows—perhaps he has one more standout season left in him.