Chicago Cubs: Projected Rotation check in

Today, we do a check-in with the Cubs projected rotation. This rotation looks like one of the best in the league.

SP1: Matthew Boyd

The comeback story is complete.

Matthew Boyd being named the Cubs 2026 Opening Day starter isn’t just a rotation move—it’s the culmination of a gruelling journey back from the brink.

After years of battling flexor tendon injuries and Tommy John surgery, Boyd didn’t just return; he evolved. Here is why he’s the right choice to lead the North Siders out of the tunnel on March 26:

1. Sustained Dominance
Coming off a resurgent 2025 All-Star campaign (14-8, 3.21 ERA), Boyd hasn’t missed a beat this spring. He’s allowed just 1 ER in his Cactus League work, showcasing a five-pitch mix that looks sharper than ever.

2. The WBC “Adrenaline Rush”
While some worry about the World Baseball Classic disrupting rhythm, Boyd used his stint with Team USA to find his “mid-March adrenaline.” He returned to Mesa early, specifically to stay on his starter’s buildup, proving his veteran focus.

3. Setting the Tone
With Justin Steele still working his way back, the Cubs needed a leader. Boyd’s 5.8% walk rate last year was a career best—he’s a strike-thrower who understands the weight of Opening Day at Wrigley.

“You earn these things,” says Craig Counsell. And after 11 years in the bigs, Matthew Boyd has certainly earned this.

SP2: Cade Horton

Cade Horton is a classic case of “spring results don’t matter” after a dominant 10-strikeout masterclass against the Guardians, just days after a shaky outing against the Rangers.

Horton is peaking at the perfect time for the 2026 season. Earlier this March, Horton reminded everyone that “results can lie to you” after giving up 6 runs and 3 homers to Texas. His focus remained on breaking ball usage and building volume rather than the box score.

• Heat Check: Horton is throwing harder than ever, sitting at 96 mph and touching 98 mph this spring—up from his 95.7 mph rookie average.
• Whiff Machine: In his most recent start, he generated 21 whiffs, a Cactus League single-game high this year.
• The Changeup: He focused heavily on his changeup against Cleveland, using it to account for 11 of those swinging strikes.

With a rib injury from last year’s postseason now behind him, the Cubs are preparing to take the guardrails off his workload. If this high-velocity, high-whiff version of Horton carries into April, he isn’t just a mid-rotation arm—he’s a legitimate Cy Young sleeper.

SP3: Shota Imanaga

The Shota Imanaga “bounce-back” season is officially in motion, and the early returns are a fascinating mix of elite stuff and familiar flaws.

After a hamstring injury derailed his 2025 campaign—leading to a 4.70 ERA and a league-high 31 home runs allowed—Imanaga stayed with the Cubs on a $22M qualifying offer. This spring, he’s pitching like a man with something to prove.

The “Good” is REALLY Good:
The velocity is back. Shota is sitting 92.6-93.5 mph, a significant jump from his 90.8 mph average last year. In his most recent start (3/17), he carved up the Angels for 8 Ks in just 4.2 innings. When his lower half is strong, the “rising” effect on his fastball returns, setting up that devastating splitter.

The “Bad” is Familiar:
The long ball hasn’t left him yet. 4 HRs in 8.1 IP is a high clip, even for the thin Arizona air. He remains a fly-ball heavy pitcher, and in a “prove-it” year, his margin for error on mistakes over the plate is razor-thin.

The Verdict:
Manager Craig Counsell is confident. The Cubs aren’t looking for him to be the 2024 All-Star every night, but if he can settle in as a high-strikeout #3 or #4 starter, this rotation becomes one of the deepest in the NL.

Shota isn’t chasing his past self—he’s trying to be a “better version of what I am right now.” If the velocity holds, the North Side is going to love the 2026 version.

SP4: Edward Cabrera

The Edward Cabrera era in Chicago is off to a scorching start.

When the Cubs traded for Cabrera this winter, they knew they were getting one of the most electric arms in the game. So far in Mesa, he’s been as advertised—and then some.

Through 3 Spring Training starts:
🔹 8.1 IP
🔹 1.08 ERA
🔹 0.84 WHIP
🔹 8 K / 1 BB
🔹 Topping out at 99 MPH

What’s different?
The stuff has always been there, but the Cubs’ pitching lab is already making its mark. Cabrera is attacking more with his 4-seam fastball (usage up to 30% from 13% last year). By establishing the high heat, his signature 94 mph “power changeup” has become even more of a nightmare for hitters to track.

The Command Factor
Historically, walks were the one thing holding Cabrera back. This spring? Just ONE walk in over 8 innings. He’s trusting his stuff in the zone and letting his elite movement do the work.

The Outlook
If Cabrera stays healthy—which has been his career-long hurdle—he isn’t just a mid-rotation piece; he has the ceiling of a legitimate staff ace for Craig Counsell. The transition from Miami to Chicago looks seamless, and the “staggering” early numbers suggest the Cubs may have pulled off the heist of the offseason.

SP5: Jameson Taillon

Is it time to sound the alarm on Jameson Taillon?

We usually say “it’s just Spring Training,” but Jamo’s 2026 Cactus League numbers are hard to ignore. Through 4 starts, the veteran righty is sitting on a staggering 22.18 ERA and a 3.00 WHIP.

Here’s the breakdown of why Cubs fans are sweating:

1️⃣ The Long Ball Problem: Taillon has served up 8 homers in just 9.1 innings. His cutter and fastball have been uncharacteristically flat, leading to what he calls “uncompetitive” outings.

2️⃣ Velocity Dip: He entered camp looking to gain speed, but he’s currently sitting at 91-92 mph. Without that extra zip, his margin for error is razor-thin, and hitters are punishing every mistake.

3️⃣ The Command Gap: Known for pounding the zone (only 27 walks in 129.2 IP last year), he’s already walked 7 batters this spring. The “crafty veteran” toolkit isn’t working if the location isn’t pinpoint.

The Silver Lining? 
He looked completely different in the WBC. In his start for Team Canada, he was sharp (1 ER in 3.2 IP). This suggests the struggles might be more mechanical/mental from “tinkering” with his delivery in Mesa rather than a total physical decline.

The Bottom Line:
Counsell isn’t panicking yet, but with guys like Ben Brown knocking on the door, Taillon needs his final 1-2 starts to show he can stabilize.