Cincinatti Reds: Projected Starting Rotation Check-in

SP1: Andrew Abbott

The Andrew Abbott Spring Training paradox is reaching a fever pitch in Cincinnati.

The numbers are undeniably ugly. A 13.85 ERA across 13 innings isn’t what you want to see from your ace. His last outing—8 runs in 2 innings—had fans hitting the panic button. But as always with Spring Training, the context is everything.

Terry Francona has already named Abbott the Opening Day starter for March 26 vs. Boston. With Hunter Greene sidelined by elbow stiffness, Abbott is the undisputed leader of this young “six-for-five” rotation. The Reds aren’t looking at the ERA; they’re looking at the arm.

Abbott’s focus has been purely developmental. He’s been hyper-focused on a mechanical adjustment to stay “directional” to the plate, trying to kill the horizontal drift that has led to some loud contact (like that McCann HR). He says the “click” happened mechanically in his last start, even if the scoreboard didn’t show it.

We saw “Peak Abbott” last year: 2.87 ERA, All-Star honors, and Cy Young votes. He’s transitioned from a high-K minor leaguer to a savvy MLB finesse lefty. The velocity is sitting where it needs to be (91-94 mph), and the “sweepier” slider remains a primary weapon.

The Verdict: Don’t let the Cactus League blowups fool you. Abbott is a “process” pitcher. If he limits the free passes and keeps the fastball elevated, he’s still the guy who held the league’s best offense scoreless for 7 frames last May.

Opening Day at GABP is the real test. Is it just spring rust, or cause for concern? We’ll find out soon.

SP2: Nick Lodolo

The Nick Lodolo 2026 Breakout Tour is officially in “Ramp Up” mode.

If you’re looking at the 5.93 spring ERA, you’re missing the forest for the trees. Here is why the Reds southpaw is primed for a massive year:

1. The Health Factor
Lodolo came into camp with “no limitations.” After a career-high 156.2 IP last year, he spent the winter filing down his index finger skin to finally put those pesky blister issues in the rearview. So far? Zero health setbacks and he’s already up to 77 pitches.

2. The Bounce Back
Forget the Dodgers outing where he got “tagged” for 6 runs. In his latest start vs. Cleveland, he was surgical:

• 4.2 IP
• 7 K
• Only 3 Hits
• 1 BB
• He’s locating the sinker and the sweeper is looking like a legitimate weapon against LHB again.

3. The Staff Anchor
Terry Francona has already named him the No. 2 starter. Following Andrew Abbott gives the Reds a lethal Left-Left punch that’s going to force opposing managers into some very uncomfortable lineup decisions.

4. The “Stuff” remains Elite
18 Ks in 13.2 innings this spring. The 11.8 K/9 rate proves that when Lodolo is on, he’s one of the most difficult lefties to touch in the NL Central.

Bottom Line: The velocity is there (sitting 94-95), the stamina is building, and the durability focus is paying off. If he stays on the mound for 30 starts, we aren’t just talking about a solid rotation piece—we’re talking about an All-Star.

SP3: Brady Singer

Brady Singer’s 2026 Spring Training has been a “tale of the tape” for a pitcher entering a critical contract year.

Entering his age-29 season with the Reds, Singer isn’t just ramping up; he’s reinventing. After a durable 32-start campaign in ’25, the focus in Goodyear has been on a revamped arsenal designed to miss more bats.

The Big Change: The “Slider vs. Sweeper” duality. Singer is intentionally throwing a harder slider this spring to play off a slower, bigger-moving sweeper. The goal? Creating more horizontal separation to keep hitters off his sinker.

It’s been a work in progress. His Cactus League debut vs. the Cubs (5 ER, 2.0+ IP) was “not sharp,” with only one swing-and-miss. But the trajectory has trended up. He followed that with 3 scoreless frames against Arizona, showing better command.

Latest Update: His last start vs. Colorado was his best yet—retiring 7 in a row—before a blister forced an early exit after 3.2 IP. While frustrating, Singer says “everything else felt really good.”

The Stakes: Singer is projected as the Reds’ #3 starter. With his high groundball rate (career 49%) and this new “hard slider” look, he’s a prime breakout candidate in a rotation that could be one of MLB’s sneakiest.

Expect him on the bump for the third game of the season vs. Boston.

SP4: Rhett Lowder

The Rhett Lowder era in Cincinnati is officially here.

After a grueling 2025 sidelined by injury, Lowder didn’t just return this spring—he demanded a spot. The Reds just confirmed he’s made the Opening Day roster.

Here’s why Reds fans should be hyped:

1️⃣ The “Veteran” Poise: Manager Terry Francona has raved about his “beyond his years” demeanor. Even when he didn’t have his best stuff (like his 4-walk grind vs Texas), he didn’t unravel. He managed traffic like a seasoned pro.

2️⃣ Elite “Pitchability”: It’s not just about 97mph heat. It’s the tunneling.

• Sinker: Heavy groundball inducer (93mph)
• Slider: Vertical 12-6 movement that disappears
• Changeup: His bread & butter. High whiff rates and late fade.

3️⃣ The Rotation Chess Match: With Hunter Greene starting on the IL, the Reds are getting creative. Lowder, Chase Burns and Brandon Williamson are ALL on the roster. Expect a “6-for-5” approach where these young arms back each other up to manage workloads while keeping the win-now window open.

4️⃣ Dominance in Flashes: Don’t let the 3.75 ERA fool you. His exhibition vs Team Cuba (3IP, 0R, 45% Whiff%) showed the ceiling. When he’s “on,” he’s a front-line starter in the making.

The roadmap for 2026 is clear: Precision over power. Command over chaos.

SP5: Chase Burns

The Chase Burns era in Cincinnati is officially here.

The Reds just confirmed that the 2024 #2 overall pick has made the Opening Day roster. If you’re looking at his 5.40 Spring ERA, you’re looking at the wrong numbers.

Here is why Chase Burns is the most “must-watch” breakout candidate for 2026:

1️⃣ Historic Whiff Ability
Early this spring, Burns posted a 54% overall whiff rate. To put that in perspective, he was getting a swing-and-miss on more than HALF the swings against him. His slider alone is inducing whiffs at a 75% clip. It’s a literal disappearing act.

2️⃣ The Triple-Digit Heater
The fastball is averaging 97.4 mph and has topped out at 100.7 mph in Cactus League play. Unlike last year, he’s showing better life and “rise” on the ball, making it nearly impossible to barrel up when located high in the zone.

3️⃣ The “Third Choice” Evolution
The knock on Burns has always been his reliance on the FB/SL combo. This spring, his changeup has been “night and day” compared to 2025. Adding a legitimate 90mph fading changeup to a 100mph heater is unfair for NL Central hitters.

4️⃣ Rotation Outlook
He’ll likely start the season in a hybrid role or as the #5 starter, sharing the workload with Rhett Lowder and Brandon Williamson as the Reds manage their young arms carefully.

The Reds now have two of the most overpowering arms in the league with Hunter Greene and Chase Burns. If the command holds, this isn’t just a “breakout”—it’s the start of a frontline ace career.

Keep your eyes on the radar gun.